22. Mai - DI Corinna Perchtold, Institute of Stochastics, Johannes Kepler Universität Linz: Precipitation and Mortality modeling in Austria

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Meeting-ID: 280 519 2121
Passwort: 584190
Abstract:
In this talk, I will provide a brief introduction to the field of Spatial Statistics. Following this, I will focus on precipitation modeling in Austria. Specifically, I will present a spatio-temporal generalised additive model to investigate whether precipitation patterns have changed over two 10-year periods within the last 50 years. The analysis includes three scenarios: monthly mean precipitation, monthly maximum precipitation, and the maximum length of a dry spell per month. These are modeled using gamma, blended generalised extreme value, and negative binomial distributions, respectively. By comparing the periods 2013–2022 and 1973–1982, I will highlight changes in precipitation patterns based on the model outputs.
To conclude, I will offer an outlook on mortality modeling in Austria. This will introduce a different type of spatial data and new challenges in the field of statistical modeling.